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际关系造成的影响。

The impacts of energy technologies on public health and safety are difficult to pin down with much confidence. In the case of air pollution from fossil fuels, in which the dominant threat to public health is thought to be particulates formed from sulfur dioxide emissions, a consensus on the number of deaths caused by exposure has proved impossible. Widely differing estimates result from different assumptions about fuel compositions, air pollution control technology, power-plant sitting in relation to population distribution, meteorological conditions affecting sulfate formation, and, above all, the relation between sulfate concentrations and disease.

能源技术对于大众健康和安全所造成的影响难以确定。以矿物燃料造成的空气污染为例，一般认为其对大众健康的主要危害是由排放的二氧化硫形成的微粒，但接触这种污染空气究竟会导致多少人死亡，却无法取得一致意见。各种估算数据千差万别，原因在于对以下各种因素的分析各不相同，比如燃料构成、空气污染防治技术、发电厂选址同人口分布之间的关系、气象条件对硫化物形成的影响，最重要的是硫化物浓度与疾病之间的关系。

Large uncertainties also apply to the health and safety impacts of nuclear fission. In this case, differing estimates result in part from differences among sites and reactor types, in part from uncertainties about emissions from fuel-cycle steps that are not yet fully operational (especially fuel reprocessing and management of uranium-mill tailings) and in part from different assumptions about the effects of exposure to low-dose radiation. The biggest uncertainties, however, relate to the probabilities and consequences of large accidents at reactors, at reprocessing plants and in the transport of wastes.

同样，核反应堆对于大众健康和安全的影响亦无法确定。对此种影响的各种估测，既有来自关于反应堆选址和类型的不同观点，又有因为核燃料反应过程(尤其是核燃料回收以及铀选矿尾矿管理)还不完备，这些环节所产生的废弃物究竟会产生何种影响尚无法确定；同时还有因为对于人类接触少量核辐射所造成的后果各执己见。然而，最大的不确定性来自核反应堆、重新加工工厂以及核废料运输过程中可能发生重大事故的概率及所造成的后果。

Altogether, the ranges of estimated hazards to public health from both coal-fired and nuclear-power plants are so wide as to extend from negligible to substantial in comparison with other risks to the population. There is little basis, in these ranges, for preferring one of these energy sources over the other. For both, the very size of the uncertainty is itself a significant liability.

同人类面临的其他威胁相比，火电厂和核电厂危害大众健康的程度究竟有多大，众说纷纭，莫衷一是。有的人认为这种影响微不足道，可以忽略不计；也有人认为这种影响程度严重、危害巨大。无论影响大小，都没有理由对种种能源亲此疏彼。无论是核电还是火电，其对人类的危害都无法确定，这本身就是一大憾事。

Often neglected, but no less important, is the public health menace from traditional fuels widely used for cooking and water heating in the developing world. Perhaps 80 percent of global exposure to particulate air pollution occurs indoors in developing countries, where the smoke from primitive stoves is heavily laden with dangerous hydrocarbons. A disproportionate share of this burden is borne, moreover, by women (who do the cooking) and small children (who indoors with their mothers).

发展中国家普遍用于做饭烧水的传统燃料对大众健康造成的危害常常不为人们所关注，但同样十分严重。全球大约80%的颗粒空气污染来自发展中国家的室内烧煮，原始炉灶排出的烟气中含有大量有害的烃（或碳氢化合物），而且这种有害物质的受害者往往是妇女（室内烧煮的主要承担者）和儿童（长时间同母亲一起呆在室内）。

The ecological threats posed by energy supply are even harder to quantify than the threats to human health

and safety from effluents and accidents. Nevertheless, enough is known to suggest they portend even larger damage to human well-being. This damage potential arises from the combination of two circumstances. 同排放的废弃物和能源设施事故对大众健康造成的危害相比，能源利用对生态系统的威胁更难以量化。然而，根据已有认识足以判断这种威胁对人类健康造成的损失将会更大。这种潜在的损失是由两种情形同时存在导致的。

First, civilization depends heavily on services provided by ecological and geophysical processes such as building and fertilizing soil, regulating water supply, controlling pests and pathogens, and maintaining a tolerable climate; yet it lacks the knowledge and the resources to replace nature?s services with technology. Second, human activities are now clearly capable of disrupting globally the processes that provide these services. Energy supply, both industrial and traditional, is responsible for a striking share of the environmental impacts of human activity. The environmental transition of the past 100 years － driven above all by a 20-fold increase in fossil-fuel use and augmented by a tripling in the use of traditional energy forms － has amounted to no less than the emergence of civilization as a global ecological and geochemical force.

首先，人类文明严重依赖于各种生态和地球物理过程所提供的各种服务，诸如造土培肥（或土壤的形成与增肥）、水源调节、病虫害控制、适宜气候的维持等等。但是，人类缺乏知识和资源来利用技术代替自然界所提供的各种服务。其次，人类活动显然能够在全球范围破坏提供这些服务的进程。无论是工业能源还是传统能源使用，在人类活动引起的环境问题中均占有很大比重。过去100年以来的环境巨变（首要驱动因素是化石燃料的使用增长了20倍，同时传统能源的使用增长了3倍），可以说无异于人类文明作为一支全球范围内的生态和地球化学力量的崛起过程。

Of all environmental problems, the most threatening, and in many respects the most intractable, is global climate change. And the greenhouse gases most responsible for the danger of rapid climate change come largely from human endeavors too massive, widespread and central to the functioning of our societies to be easily altered: carbon dioxide (CO2) from deforestation and the combustion of fossil fuels; methane from rice paddies, cattle gusts and the exploitation of oil and natural gas; and nitrous oxides from fuel combustions and fertilizer use.

在诸多环境问题中，对人类威胁最大、在许多情况下却又最让人类无计可施的是全球气候变化。而对气候剧变最起作用的温室气体主要来自人类活动，这些活动规模之大、范围之广、对人类社会运转作用之大，都无法轻易改变。这些气体包括：由于毁林和燃烧矿物燃料所造成的二氧化碳，由秸秆、牲畜粪便和使用石油天然气所排放的甲烷，以及由于燃料燃烧和施肥所排放的一氧化二氮。

The only other external cost that might match the devastating impact of global climate change is the risk of causing or aggravating large-scale military conflict. One such threat is the potential for conflict over access to petroleum resources. Another threat is the link between nuclear energy and the spread of nuclear weapons. The issue is hardly less complex and controversial than the link between CO2 and climate; many analysts, including me, think it is threatening indeed.

其他唯一能同全球气候变化所造成的灾难性影响相提并论的外化成本是发生或恶化大规模军事冲突的可能。其中潜在的威胁是为争夺石油资源而引起的冲突。另一个威胁则来自核能和核武器扩散之间的联系，这种联系的复杂性几乎不亚于二氧化碳和气候之间的关系。许多分析家（包括本人）均认为这种关系十分危险。

U nit 3 Pity the poor traffic cop. He's the last guy you want to see in your rear-view mirror when you're speeding down the highway. Why isn't he out looking for murderers instead of nailing drivers for minor infractions of the law? 哎，这可怜的交警。他是你在高速公路上疾驰时最不愿意在后视镜里看见的人。他为什么不去抓那些杀人犯，却在这儿为了一点儿芝麻大的交通违规对司机们穷追不舍？

Well, according to a major research project by scientists in Canada and California, that cop just might be saving your life. Or the life of someone else.

然而,根据加拿大和加利福尼亚科学家们的一项重要研究，那位警察也许恰恰是在救你的 命，或者救別的什么人的命。

The researchers have found that a traffic ticket reduces a driver's chance of being involved in a fatal accident by a whopping 35 percent, at least for a few weeks. The effect doesn't last long, however. Within three to four months, the lead foot is back on the pedal and the risk of killing yourself or someone else is back up to where it was before that cop stared you in the eye and wrote out that expensive citation.

研究者们发现一张交通罚单能让司机至少在几周内遭遇重大车祸的概率降低35%。似是这个作用不会持续很长。三四个月后，那只脚又会回到油门儿上去，置自己或別人于死地的危险率又和警察瞪着你开出巨额罚单前一样高了。

The bottom line, according to the research, published in the June 28 issue of The Lancet, is that traffic tickets save lives. Maybe thousands of lives, every year. Yet traffic laws are enforced sporadically, almost as if by whim, partly because people just don't like traffic cops, and there are lots of other things for the government to spend money on than enforcing highway safety laws.

根据6月28日发表在《柳叶刀》上的研究，最根本的一点就是交通罚单能救命，它很可能每年能救成千上万条命。然而交通法规只是零星地被实施，就像心血来潮似的，部分原因是人们不喜欢罚单，而且除了实施髙速公路安全法，政府部门还有很多其他地方要花钱。 The Grim Statistics 无情的统计数椐

That attitude needs to be changed, according to Donald A. Redelmeier of the University of Toronto and Robert J. Tibshirani of Stanford University. Both men are medical researchers, and this isn't the first time they've taken a hard look at highway safety. Their 1998 study caused a stir when they linked cell phone usage to traffic accidents. Now they're back, saying traffic tickets are good for our health.

多伦多大学的热德尔美尔和斯坦福大学的提波施拉尼认为这种态度需要改变。他们俩都是医学研究者，这已不是他们第一次盯着高速公路安全问题了。他们俩1998年的研究引起了轰动，当时他们认为打手机与交通事故有关联。现在他们又来了，说交通罚单对我们的健康有好处。

They were prodded into this project by some very grim statistics. Each year, more than a million persons die in traffic accidents worldwide. If that many people died of SARS in a year, the public response would probably border on hysteria, but we have come to accept traffic fatalities as a way of life.

他们之所以参与这个项目是受到一些残酷无情的统计数据的驱使。每年，全世界有100多万人死于交通事故。如果一年内那么多人死于非典的话，大家很可能会恐惧得发疯了，然而我 们对交通亊故死亡率却习以为常了。

In addition, another 25 million people around the world are permanently disabled by traffic accidents, and many of them — as well as the fatalities — are children.

另外，还有2 500万人因交通事故永远残废了，而且他们当中(包括死去的)很多是孩子。 Taking It Easy After a Ticket?

接到罚中处之泰然？

When Redelmeier and Tibshirani and fellow researcher Leonard Evans set out to see if traffic tickets really do any good, they found an enormous resource in the Canadian province of Ontario. The full driving record of every licensed driver there was made available to them, warts and all, giving the researchers a huge data base of more than 10 million licensed drivers, 8,975 of whom were involved in a fatal accident during the 11-year period covered by the research, from 1988 through 1998. 当热德尔美尔、提波施拉尼和他们的共同研究人员伦纳德 ?伊凡斯研究交通罚单是否真能起到好作用时，他们在加拿大的安大略省发现了数量巨大的司机资料。他们在那儿能看到每个有驾照的人的全部记录，这样他们就有了一个良莠俱存的超过一千万个持照司机的巨大数据库。其中8 975个司机在此项研究覆盖的1988-1998共11年中曾出过重大交通事故。

\month in the year before,\in the month before a fatal accident than there were a year before, and that suggests there's a protective effect of having a ticket.\

统计学家提波施拉尼说:“我们看了一下出重大事故前一个月的交通罚单数和前一年同一个月的罚单数，发现出重大事故前一个月的罚单要比前一年同一个月的罚单少，这说明罚单有保护作用。” In other words, when the number of citations went down, the number of fatal accidents went up the following month, and when the number of tickets went up, the number of fatal accidents dropped the following month. The analysis shows that fatal accidents declined by 35 percent because of citations.

换言之，当罚单数下降时，重大事故率在接下来这个月就会上升；而当罚单数上升时，重大事故率在接下来这个月就会下降。分析表明罚单能使重大事故率下降35%。

Apparently, people just drove more cautiously following a traffic citation, but that only lasted a maximum of four months, the researchers say. After that brief respite, it was back to business as usual for most motorists.

显然，人们在拿到交通罚单后开车会更谨慎，但这种谨慎最长只会持续4个月。对多数司机来说，经过这短暂的歇息，一切又都恢复到从前了。

Citations? Effects Consistent 罚单的持续作用

The scientists also turned up some surprising results. 科学家们还出示了一些令人吃惊的研究结果。

\paper. Most occurred during the summer months when the streets were dry (65 percent) rather than wet (18 percent) or covered with snow (17 percent).

“多数撞车不是因为酒后驾车，也不是发生在十字路口，”他们在研究报告中这样报道。多数事故发生在夏季，当时的道路干燥（65%）而不湿滑（18%），也没有雪覆盖（17%）。

They also found that the \risk reduction associated with traffic convictions was remarkably consistent among subgroups of licensed drivers,\so the same results apply to women as well as men, regardless of age, prior driving record, and other personal data.

他们还发现“在有驾照的那组司机中拿到罚单后的事故减少率的持续性是显著的\，因此同样的结论适用于妇女和男人，而与年龄因素、以前的驾驶记录和其他个人资料无关。

Men, however, were involved in far more fatal accidents than women (73 percent to 27 percent) and the most accident-prone age was between 30 and 50. Alcohol was detected in only 7 percent of the accidents. 但是，男人要比女人更容易出严重交通亊故(73%比27%)，而且最容易出事故的年龄是在30-50岁之

间。酒后驾车只占事故的7%。

The researchers also addressed the commonly held belief that traffic citations cause more accidents than they prevent because so many people are killed during police chases. They found that only 24 deaths could be linked to writing citations during the 11-year period. That included 17 suspects, five bystanders and two police officers.\check for alcohol or a speeding violation,\they report. The two police officers were killed in separate events when they were hit by a car while writing a ticket for another motorist.

研究者们还澄清了一种普遍的想法：交通罚单引起的交通事故比防止的多，因为很多人是在警察追他们时丧生的。他们发现在过去的11年中只有24起死亡事故和罚单有关，这包括17个被追的司机、5个路人和2位警察。 “最典型的一例是一个26岁的男子，因想逃避酒精和超速违规的现场检查而被警察穷追不舍，”他们报告说。有2位警察死于与这互不相关的事件中，当时他们正在给另一个摩托车驾驶员开罚单。

Who Really Pays? 到底谁付出代价？

The researchers admit there are a few gaps in their findings. The statistics do not include Ontario drivers who may have been involved in a fatal accident somewhere outside that province. Nor can they say that every traffic ticket leads to a reduction in accidents. But the statistics suggest a correlation between the number of citations and the number of fatalities.

研究者们承认在他们的研究中有一些漏洞。统计数字不包括有可能在省外某地出严重交通事故的安大略省司机。他们也不能说每张交通罚单都能降低事故率。但是数据显示交通罚单的数量和死亡率之间呈相关性。

They also point out that the innocent are often made to pay the price for careless drivers. 他们还指出为粗心大意的司机付出代价的经常是那些无辜受害者。

\other common diseases, the victims are often young and need significant subsequent care for decades. Most crashes are unintended, unexpected, and could have been prevented by a small difference in driver behavior.\

“和其他常见病不一样，受害人通常很年轻，需要以后几十年连续不断的照顾。大多数事故是无意的，意料之外的，只要司机在驾驶上稍有不同就能避免。”

So the next time you see that cop in your rear-view mirror, give him, or her, a broad smile. 因此下次你要是在后视镜里看见那位警察，一定要对他/她热情微笑。 Yeah, right.