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xxx学院 课程论文

论文题目: 分析西安市产业结构对经济增长的影响

系 (室）： 专业班级： 小组成员：

指导教师：

完成日期：2015年12月13日

分析西安市产业结构对经济增长的影响

摘要

西安市近年来随着经济迅猛发展，经济实力不断增强。经济发展以经济增长为前提，而经济增长与产业结构变动有着密不可分的关系。在一定条件下，产业结构变动是经济增长的基础，是促进经济增长的主要因素。强调产业结构的转变也是当前经济增长的发展要求。本文采用1985年至2014年的统计数据，通过建立多元线性回归模型，运用Eviews软件，建立计量经济学模型，研究三大产业的增长对西安市经济增长的贡献，从而得出调整产业结构对转变经济发展方式，促进西安市经济可持续发展的重要意义。

关键词：经济增长、产业结构、回归分析、模型检验

目 录

绪 论 ································································································ 1

（一）问题的提出及研究意义 ···························································· 1

1．问题的提出 ·········································································· 1 2．研究意义 ············································································· 1 （二）研究思路 ·············································································· 1 一、西安市经济现状 ············································································· 2 二、数据收集及模型设定 ······································································· 2

（一）数据收集与处理 ····································································· 2 （二）模型的设定 ··········································································· 4 三、模型参数估计 ················································································ 4 四、模型检验 ······················································································· 5

（一）经济意义检验 ········································································ 5 （二）统计检验 ·············································································· 6

1．拟合优度检验 ······································································· 6 2．F检验 ················································································· 6 3．t检验 ·················································································· 6 （三）计量经济学检验 ····································································· 6

1．解释变量间的多重共线性检验 ·················································· 6 2．自相关性检验 ······································································· 7 3．异方差性经验 ······································································· 7

五、根据数据进行对GDP的影响分析 ······················································· 8 六、对策建议 ······················································································· 9

（一）转变经济发展方式，推动产业优化升级 ······································· 9 （二）加大对农业的投入，调整农业内部产业结构 ································· 9 （三）坚持走新兴工业化道路 ···························································· 9 （四）积极推进服务业发展及转型 ···················································· 10 （五）注重发挥市场机制的作用 ······················································· 10 参考文献 ··························································································· 11