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摘 要

近年来，随着我国城市化进程的加快，重大危险源所引发的安全问题也越来越受到人们的广泛关注。如果不采取合理的技术措施控制重大危险源，有可能导致重大事故的发生，造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。因此对重大危险源进行评价确定其危险等级是对重大危险源评价的重要研究内容。

本文列举出近年来国内外发生的一些重大危险源事故，并介绍了关于重大危险源分级的一些方法，同时分析了静态分级和动态分级的优缺点。在国内外学者研究的基础上，建立了较为完善的重大危险源动态分级指标体系，并利用集对分析法对重大危险源进行动态分级。

本文通过层次分析法计算出重大危险源中各指标的权重，然后将系统危险性的分级结果与集对势相结合来判断系统的危险性，进而确定系统的危险等级。通过对实例的分析所得到的结果证明了该炼油厂还需要进一步采取安全措施提高其安全等级，可以避免重大事故的发生。

关键词： 重大危险源 动态分级 集对分析法 集对势

大连交通大学2011届本科生毕业设计（论文）

ABSTRACT

In recent years, with the accelerated process of urbanization in China, people pay more attention to the problems caused by major safety hazard. If we do not take reasonable technical measures to control major hazard, that could lead to major accidents and causing serious casualties and property loss. Therefore, evaluating the major hazards to determine the risk level is an important research to the assessment of major hazard.

This thesis lists some of the major accident hazards happened at home and abroad in recent years, and describes some of the methods about the classification of major hazard, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the static classification and dynamic classification. Based on the researches of scholars at home and abroad, we build a more comprehensive dynamic classification index system of major hazard, and make dynamic classification to the major hazard using set pair analysis.

This paper calculates the weight of each index in the major hazard by AHP (analytic hierarchy process), and combines the classification of system risk with set of potential to determine the potential danger of the system. Then the hazard level system is determined by set pair method. Through the results of the application analysis, it shows that the refinery needs to take further measures to improve the security level in order to avoid major accidents.

Key words: Major hazards Dynamic classification Set Pair Analysis Set of potential

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目 录

第一章 绪论 ............................................................................................................................ 1

1.1课题的来源及意义...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1课题的来源 ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2重大危险源分级的意义 ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2国内外发展现状 .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1国外研究现状 ........................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2国内研究现状 ........................................................................................................................... 3 1.3论文的研究内容 ........................................................................................................... 5 1.4论文的创新点 ............................................................................................................... 5 第二章 重大危险源分级方法 ................................................................................................ 6

2.1危险源静态分级法...................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 DOW化学公司火灾爆炸指数评价法 ............................................................................... 6 2.1.2 基于BP算法的神经网络的危险源分级 ......................................................................... 6 2.1.3易燃、易爆、有毒重大危险源评价法 .............................................................................. 7 2.1.4 死亡半径法 ............................................................................................................................... 8 2.2危险源动态分级法...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1基于神经网络的重大危险源分级法 .................................................................................. 9 2.3其他方法 ..................................................................................................................... 10 2.4各种方法的优缺点 ..................................................................................................... 10 第三章 集对分析法及其在重大危险源分级中的应用 ..................................................... 11

3.1集对分析法 ................................................................................................................................. 11 3.1.1什么是集对分析 ..................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.2集对与联系度 ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.3集对势 ....................................................................................................................................... 11 3.2集对分析在重大危险源动态分级中的应用 ...................................................................... 13 3.2.1集对分析在重大危险源动态分级中的合理性 .............................................................. 13 3.2.2基于集对分析的在重大危险源动态分级的步骤 .......................................................... 13 第四章 实例分析 .................................................................................................................. 16

4.1通过层次分析法确定各指标的权重 ......................................................................... 16 4.2对计算结果进行分析 ................................................................................................. 19 第五章 结论 .......................................................................................................................... 21 谢 辞 ...................................................................................................................................... 22 参考文献 .................................................................................................................................. 23