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energy demand brought forth by 100 years of unprecedented population growth,
coupled with an equally remarkable growth in per capita demand of industrial energy forms. It entailed the use of dirty coal as well as clean; undersea oil as well as terrestrial; deep gas as well as shallow; mediocre hydroelectric sites as well as good ones; and deforestation as well as sustainable fuelwood harvesting. ３．20世纪90年代初期人们关注的焦点在于，这种始于70年代的能源发展趋势是暂时的还是长远的。廉价能源时代是真正一去不复返，还是通过开发新能源、应用新技术、改革地缘政治秩序等措施，有可能重登历史舞台？回答这个问题的一个关键因素是过去100年以来因人口空前增长带来的令人瞠目的能源需求以及同样使人无所应对的人均工业能源需求。急剧增长的能源需求使得人类对能源的使用无所不用其极：不管是清洁煤炭还是劣质煤炭（或“无矸煤还是有矸煤”），见煤就挖；无论是陆上石油还是海底石油，深层气还是浅层气，见油气就采；水电站建设不论适宜与否，见水就上；一边绿化造林以求薪材可持续发展，一边却砍树毁林。
Except for the huge pool of oil underlying the Middle East, the cheapest oil and gas are already gone. Even if a few more giant oil fields are discovered, they will make little difference against consumption on today?s scale. Oil and gas will have to come increasingly, for most countries, from deeper in the earth and from imports whose reliability and affordability cannot be guaranteed. ４.除了中东地区蕴藏着巨大的石油资源，地球上廉价的油气资源已经不复存在了。即使偶尔找到几个大的油田，同当今巨大的能源消耗相比，也是杯水车薪。对于大多数国家来说，油气资源越来越多地依赖进口，且不说进口油气资源的可靠性无法得到保障，其对进口国的支付能力也是一个考验。
There are a variety of other energy resources that are more abundant than oil and gas. Coal, solar energy, and fission and fusion fuels are the most important ones. But they all require elaborate and expensive transformation into electricity or liquid fuels in order to meet society?s needs. None has very good prospects for delivering large quantities of electricity at costs comparable to those of the cheap coal-fired and hydropower plants of the 1960?s. It appears, then, that expensive energy is a permanent condition, even without allowing for its environmental costs.
５.诚然，其他许多资源的储量大于石油和天然气，最重要的有煤、太阳能、聚变裂变燃料等。但是这些能源转化成电力或液体燃料，以满足社会需求，需要经过技术复杂、成本昂贵的转化过程。同20世纪60 年代成本低廉的燃煤火电站和水力发电站相比，仅从成本考虑，以上各种资源用于大规模发电的可能性极小。因此，即使不考虑能源开采的环境成本，能源价格居高不下已成无可改变的定局。 The capacity of the environment to absorb the effluents and other impacts of energy technologies is itself a finite resource. The finitude is manifested in two basic types of environmental costs. External costs are those imposed by environmental disruptions on society but not reflected in the monetary accounts of the buyers and sellers of the energy. “Internalized costs” are increases in monetary costs imposed by measures, such as pollution-control devices, aimed at reducing the external costs.
６.环境吸纳由于能源利用而产生的废弃物和其他影响的能力本身也是有限度的，表现在两方面的环境成本上。所谓“外延成本”即由于环境遭到破坏对社会造成的影响，但尚未反映到能源买卖双方的交易价格上；所谓“内涵成本”即为降低
外延成本而采取的各种措施（如污染防治措施）所引起的货币成本的增长。 Both types of environmental costs have been rising for several reasons. First, the declining quality of fuel deposits and energy-conversion sites to which society must now turn means more material must be moved or processed, bigger facilities must be constructed and longer distances must be traversed. Second, the growing magnitude of effluents from energy systems has led to saturation of the environment?s capacity to absorb such effluents without disruption. Third, the monetary costs of controlling pollution tend to increase with the percentage of pollutants removed.
７.两种环境成本均一直呈增长趋势，原因是多方面的。首先，社会发展所依赖的燃料矿藏和加工地质量下降，必然要求矿物运输和加工的数量增加、设施扩大、运输距离延长。第二，能源利用所产生的废弃物不断增加，使得环境自我净化能力达到了极限。第三，污染防治所需的资金成本亦将随着消除污染物比例的提高而提高。
Despite these expenditures, the remaining uninternalized environmental costs have been substantial and in many cases are growing. Those of greatest concern are the risk of death or disease as a result of emissions or accidents at energy facilities and the impact of energy supplied on the global ecosystem and on international relations. ８.尽管代价高昂，尚未内化的环境成本一直居高不下，并在许多情形下呈增长趋势，其中最引人关注的是由能源设施排放废物或发生事故所带来的死亡和疾病，以及由于能源供应对全球生态系统和国际关系造成的影响。
The impacts of energy technologies on public health and safety are difficult to pin down with much confidence. In the case of air pollution from fossil fuels, in which the dominant threat to public health is thought to be particulates formed from sulfur dioxide emissions, a consensus on the number of deaths caused by exposure has
proved impossible. Widely differing estimates result from different assumptions about fuel compositions, air pollution control technology, power-plant sitting in relation to population distribution, meteorological conditions affecting sulfate formation, and, above all, the relation between sulfate concentrations and disease.
９.能源技术对于大众健康和安全所造成的影响难以确定。以矿物燃料造成的空气污染为例，一般认为其对大众健康的主要危害是由排放的二氧化硫形成的微粒，但接触这种污染空气究竟会导致多少人死亡，却无法取得一致意见。各种估算数据千差万别，原因在于对以下各种因素的分析各不相同，比如燃料构成、空气污染防治技术、发电厂选址同人口分布之间的关系、气象条件对硫化物形成的影响，最重要的是硫化物浓度与疾病之间的关系。
Large uncertainties also apply to the health and safety impacts of nuclear fission. In this case, differing estimates result in part from differences among sites and reactor types, in part from uncertainties about emissions from fuel-cycle steps that are not yet fully operational (especially fuel reprocessing and management of uranium-mill tailings) and in part from different assumptions about the effects of exposure to
low-dose radiation. The biggest uncertainties, however, relate to the probabilities and consequences of large accidents at reactors, at reprocessing plants and in the transport of wastes.
10.同样，核反应堆对于大众健康和安全的影响亦无法确定。对此种影响的各种估测，既有来自关于反应堆选址和类型的不同观点，又有因为核燃料反应过程(尤
其是核燃料回收以及铀选矿尾矿管理)还不完备，这些环节所产生的废弃物究竟会产生何种影响尚无法确定；同时还有因为对于人类接触少量核辐射所造成的后果各执己见。然而，最大的不确定性来自核反应堆、重新加工工厂以及核废料运输过程中可能发生重大事故的概率及所造成的后果。
Altogether, the ranges of estimated hazards to public health from both coal-fired and nuclear-power plants are so wide as to extend from negligible to substantial in comparison with other risks to the population. There is little basis, in these ranges, for preferring one of these energy sources over the other. For both, the very size of the uncertainty is itself a significant liability.
11.同人类面临的其他威胁相比，火电厂和核电厂危害大众健康的程度究竟有多大，众说纷纭，莫衷一是。有的人认为这种影响微不足道，可以忽略不计；也有人认为这种影响程度严重、危害巨大。无论影响大小，都没有理由对种种能源亲此疏彼。无论是核电还是火电，其对人类的危害都无法确定，这本身就是一大憾事。
Often neglected, but no less important, is the public health menace from traditional fuels widely used for cooking and water heating in the developing world. Perhaps 80 percent of global exposure to particulate air pollution occurs indoors in developing countries, where the smoke from primitive stoves is heavily laden with dangerous hydrocarbons. A disproportionate share of this burden is borne, moreover, by women (who do the cooking) and small children (who indoors with their mothers).
12.发展中国家普遍用于做饭烧水的传统燃料对大众健康造成的危害常常不为人们所关注，但同样十分严重。全球大约80%的颗粒空气污染来自发展中国家的室内烧煮，原始炉灶排出的烟气中含有大量有害的烃（或碳氢化合物），而且这种有害物质的受害者往往是妇女（室内烧煮的主要承担者）和儿童（长时间同母亲一起呆在室内）。
The ecological threats posed by energy supply are even harder to quantify than the threats to human health and safety from effluents and accidents. Nevertheless, enough is known to suggest they portend even larger damage to human well-being. This damage potential arises from the combination of two circumstances.
13.同排放的废弃物和能源设施事故对大众健康造成的危害相比，能源利用对生态系统的威胁更难以量化。然而，根据已有认识足以判断这种威胁对人类健康造成的损失将会更大。这种潜在的损失是由两种情形同时存在导致的
First, civilization depends heavily on services provided by ecological and geophysical processes such as building and fertilizing soil, regulating water supply, controlling pests and pathogens, and maintaining a tolerable climate; yet it lacks the knowledge and the resources to replace nature?s services with technology. Second, human activities are now clearly capable of disrupting globally the processes that provide these services. Energy supply, both industrial and traditional, is responsible for a striking share of the environmental impacts of human activity. The environmental transition of the past 100 years － driven above all by a 20-fold increase in
fossil-fuel use and augmented by a tripling in the use of traditional energy forms － has amounted to no less than the emergence of civilization as a global ecological and geochemical force.
14.首先，人类文明严重依赖于各种生态和地球物理过程所提供的各种服务，诸
如造土培肥（或土壤的形成与增肥）、水源调节、病虫害控制、适宜气候的维持等等。但是，人类缺乏知识和资源来利用技术代替自然界所提供的各种服务。其次，人类活动显然能够在全球范围破坏提供这些服务的进程。无论是工业能源还是传统能源使用，在人类活动引起的环境问题中均占有很大比重。过去100年以来的环境巨变（首要驱动因素是化石燃料的使用增长了20倍，同时传统能源的使用增长了3倍），可以说无异于人类文明作为一支全球范围内的生态和地球化学力量的崛起过程。
Of all environmental problems, the most threatening, and in many respects the most intractable, is global climate change. And the greenhouse gases most responsible for the danger of rapid climate change come largely from human endeavors too massive, widespread and central to the functioning of our societies to be easily altered: carbon dioxide (CO2) from deforestation and the combustion of fossil fuels; methane from rice paddies, cattle gusts and the exploitation of oil and natural gas; and nitrous oxides from fuel combustions and fertilizer use.
15.在诸多环境问题中，对人类威胁最大、在许多情况下却又最让人类无计可施的是全球气候变化。而对气候剧变最起作用的温室气体主要来自人类活动，这些活动规模之大、范围之广、对人类社会运转作用之大，都无法轻易改变。这些气体包括：由于毁林和燃烧矿物燃料所造成的二氧化碳，由秸秆、牲畜粪便和使用石油天然气所排放的甲烷，以及由于燃料燃烧和施肥所排放的一氧化二氮。 The only other external cost that might match the devastating impact of global climate change is the risk of causing or aggravating large-scale military conflict. One such threat is the potential for conflict over access to petroleum resources. Another threat is the link between nuclear energy and the spread of nuclear weapons. The issue is hardly less complex and controversial than the link between CO2 and climate; many analysts, including me, think it is threatening indeed.
16.其他唯一能同全球气候变化所造成的灾难性影响相提并论的外化成本是发生或恶化大规模军事冲突的可能。其中潜在的威胁是为争夺石油资源而引起的冲突。另一个威胁则来自核能和核武器扩散之间的联系，这种联系的复杂性几乎不亚于二氧化碳和气候之间的关系。许多分析家（包括本人）均认为这种关系十分危险
Do Traffic Tickets Save Lives?
交通罚单能救命吗？
Pity the poor traffic cop. He's the last guy you want to see in your rear-view mirror when you're speeding down the highway. Why isn't he out looking for murderers instead of nailing drivers for minor infractions of the law?
哎，这可怜的交警。他是你在高速公路上疾驰时最不愿意在后视镜里看见的人。他为什么不去抓那些杀人犯，却在这儿为了一点儿芝麻大的交通违规对司机们穷追不舍？
Well, according to a major research project by scientists in Canada and California, that cop just might be saving your life. Or the life of someone else.
然而,根据加拿大和加利福尼亚科学家们的一项重要研究，那位警察也许恰恰是在救你的 命，或者救別的什么人的命。
The researchers have found that a traffic ticket reduces a driver's chance of being involved in a fatal accident by a whopping 35 percent, at least for a few weeks. The effect doesn't last long, however. Within three to four months, the lead foot is back on the pedal and the risk of killing yourself or someone else is back up to where it was before that cop stared you in the eye and wrote out that expensive citation.
研究者们发现一张交通罚单能让司机至少在几周内遭遇重大车祸的概率降低35%。似是这个作用不会持续很长。三四个月后，那只脚又会回到油门儿上去，置自己或別人于死地的危险率又和警察瞪着你开出巨额罚单前一样高了。 The bottom line, according to the research, published in the June 28 issue of The Lancet, is that traffic tickets save lives. Maybe thousands of lives, every year. Yet
traffic laws are enforced sporadically, almost as if by whim, partly because people just don't like traffic cops, and there are lots of other things for the government to spend money on than enforcing highway safety laws. 根据6月28日发表在《柳叶刀》上的研究，最根本的一点就是交通罚单能救命，它很可能每年能救成千上万条命。然而交通法规只是零星地被实施，就像心血来潮似的，部分原因是人们不喜欢罚单，而且除了实施髙速公路安全法，政府部门还有很多其他地方要花钱。 The Grim Statistics 无情的统计数椐
That attitude needs to be changed, according to Donald A. Redelmeier of the
University of Toronto and Robert J. Tibshirani of Stanford University. Both men are medical researchers, and this isn't the first time they've taken a hard look at highway safety. Their 1998 study caused a stir when they linked cell phone usage to traffic accidents. Now they're back, saying traffic tickets are good for our health.
多伦多大学的热德尔美尔和斯坦福大学的提波施拉尼认为这种态度需要改变。他们俩都是医学研究者，这已不是他们第一次盯着高速公路安全问题了。他们俩1998年的研究引起了轰动，当时他们认为打手机与交通事故有关联。现在他们又来了，说交通罚单对我们的健康有好处。
They were prodded into this project by some very grim statistics. Each year, more than a million persons die in traffic accidents worldwide. If that many people died of SARS in a year, the public response would probably border on hysteria, but we have