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成矿预测理论与方法新进展

摘要：成矿预测研究的历史与人类进行矿产勘查的历史紧密联系，随着找矿难度的增大，成矿预测对勘查工作的指导作用越来

越重要。现代地质科学的重要特征是冲破学科的界线，立足于整个地质学的高度进行跨学科的联合攻关，方能在理论上和技术

方法上有所创新。论述与总结了一些现有成矿预测新方法的特点，包括美国“三步式”固体矿产资源潜力评价方法、成矿系列缺

位预测法、基于GIS 的综合信息预测法及人工神经网络、多重分形等非线性数学预测方法。这为今后进行成矿预测时在方法选 择上提供了一些有益的建议和参考。

关键词：成矿预测；综合信息；人工神经网络；地理信息系统；模糊逻辑 中图分类号：P612 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1671-2552（2010）06-0953-08

Hou C X, Shen W. New method and theory of metallogenic prediction. Geological Bulletin of China, 2010, 29(6):953-960

Abstract： Metallogenic prediction research history is closely related to human's mineral exploration. With the increasing difficulty of

prospecting, it's indicated that metallogenic prediction can be an important guide to mineral exploration. An important characteristic of

modern geosciences is breach of discipline the restriction. Thus focus on the whole geosciences, to conduct jointly inter-disciplinary

research, we can obtain theoretical and technical innovations. This paper has summarized characteristics of several existing metallogenic

prediction methods, such as \solid mineral resources evaluation method form USA, Vacancy of Metallogenic Series Prediction,

Synthetic Metallogenic Prognosis Method Based on GIS, Artificial nerve network, and Multi-fractal non-linear methods for mineral resource prediction, which will provide useful reference to metallogenic prediction in future.

Key words: metallogenic prediction; comprehensive information; artificial nerve network(ANN); GIS; fuzzy logic

成矿预测研究现状及发展趋势

薛顺荣① 胡光道① 丁 俊②

收稿日期:2001 -07 -18

作者简介:薛顺荣(1965～ ), 男, 云南玉溪人, 地质高级工程师, 在读地球探测与信息技术专业硕士研究生, 主要从 事矿产资源评价工作.

(①中国地质大学资源学院, 武汉 430074;

②中国地质调查局西南地区项目管理办公室, 成都 610082) 摘 要:随着地表露头矿、易识别矿越来越少, 找矿难度越来越大。GIS 高新技术普及应

用, 为成矿预测展示了新的前景。本文通过成矿预测发展历史的回顾, 概述今后一段时期地勘

行业成矿预测的主要思路:在新的成矿理论指导下, 借助GIS 技术, 实现科学化、系统化、信息

化、动态化和可视化多源信息综合预测找矿, 为普查立项提供依据, 并提出了具体工作步骤。

关键词:成矿预测;现状及趋势;GIS 技术;工作步骤;

中图分类号:P612 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1004 —1885 (2001) 04— 411— 6

THE CURRENT SITUATION

AND DEVELOPMENT TREND OF METALLOGENETIC PROGNOSIS

XIU SHun-rong ① , HU Guang-dao ① , DING Jun ②

(① Resources College , China University of Geosciences , Wuhan 430074 ② Project Office of Southwest China , China Geosurvey , Chengdu 610082)

Abstract :The ore-finding is more difficult because the

outcropping and recognizable ore deposits are

very few .Fortunately , the spread application of high-tech GIS shows a new advance in the metallogenetic

prognosis .According to a historic review of metallogenetic prognosis , we put forward the main

thoughts and working steps of future meltallogenetic prognosis in geological exploration working , ie , to

realize scientific , systematic , informative , dynamic , visible multiple information comprehensive prognosis

and ore-finding under direction of new metallogenetic theory and using GIS technique in oreder to

provide the basis for approval ore prospecting project . Key Words :Metallogenetic Prognosis ;Current Situation and Development Trend ;GIS Technique